Desigualdades regionais na estrutura produtiva brasileira: evidências sistêmicas contrafactuais

Abstract

This study analyzes regional and intraregional asymmetries in Brazilian economic development based on the interregional input-output matrix. Using a systemic counterfactual approach, scenarios were constructed that highlight the concentration of more dynamic productive sectors, especially industrial and complex services, in certain states. In contrast, several federal units maintain less diversified structures, with a strong presence of primary export activities. In some regions, public policies aimed at productive diversification have been adopted; however, their effectiveness tends to be limited when they disregard local specificities and remain vulnerable to endogenous constraints. The results also show that, in certain scenarios, household consumption and exports play a central role in shaping inequalities, acting as elements that reinforce already established territorial patterns. It is clear that these disparities are not limited to the traditional opposition between North and South, but also manifest themselves within the regions themselves. In view of this, strengthening a local productive structure that is coordinated and sensitive to territorial characteristics is essential. High dependence on single sectors, especially those subject to external shocks, such as primary sectors, reveals weaknesses and reinforces the need for strategies aimed at diversification and consolidation of interdependencies in production chains, both at the regional and national levels.

This study analyzes regional and intraregional asymmetries in Brazilian economic development based on the interregional input-output matrix. Using a systemic counterfactual approach, scenarios were constructed that highlight the concentration of more dynamic productive sectors, especially industrial and complex services, in certain states. In contrast, several federal units maintain less diversified structures, with a strong presence of primary export activities. In some regions, public policies aimed at productive diversification have been adopted; however, their effectiveness tends to be limited when they disregard local specificities and remain vulnerable to endogenous constraints. The results also show that, in certain scenarios, household consumption and exports play a central role in shaping inequalities, acting as elements that reinforce already established territorial patterns. It is clear that these disparities are not limited to the traditional opposition between North and South, but also manifest themselves within the regions themselves. In view of this, strengthening a local productive structure that is coordinated and sensitive to territorial characteristics is essential. High dependence on single sectors, especially those subject to external shocks, such as primary sectors, reveals weaknesses and reinforces the need for strategies aimed at diversification and consolidation of interdependencies in production chains, both at the regional and national levels.