Padrões espaciais e temporais de chutes a gol e efetividade defensiva de goleiros no futebol internacional de elite

Abstract

The objective of this study was to analyze the frequency of shots on goal, their spatial and temporal patterns, as well as the defensive effectiveness of goalkeepers in elite international soccer. To this end, data were collected from matches in the five major European leagues (Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, and Ligue 1). The data were obtained through the public platform (Understat.com, Gibraltar/ United Kingdom). Goal kick events were classified according to distance, angle, game time, type of play, and body movement used for the kick. This classification system allowed for the vectorization and categorization of different offensive contexts of shots on gol, as well as the goalkeepers' defense effectiveness rate. The results of the 19,406 games that were sampled returned 486,122 goal-kicking events, representing a rate of 25.1 ± 1.4 per game. Of these events, 34.8% ± 1.3% were toward the goal, with a rate of 11.2 ± 0.7 kicks per goal. A subsequent analysis of the origin of the shots revealed that 73.1 ± 0.5% were of the open play type; half of these were taken with the right foot (50.7 ± 0.2%). The distribution of attempts revealed a higher frequency of shots on goal from intermediate zones, between 10 and 25 meters (18.2 ± 8.1 meters), with average angles (15° and 31°; 24.8 ± 15.4°). A low frequency of shots with open angles (i.e., greater than 45°) was also observed, with shots becoming progressively closer to the goal as the game progressed. The save rate (23.3 ± 0.9%) demonstrated consistent stability throughout the match. The analysis revealed that save rates were lower for actions resulting from corner kicks (15.5 ± 1.2), followed by penalties (16.7 ± 4.4); set pieces (19.5 ± 2). The area of the field was also found to influence save rates, with the lowest rates observed in the goal area (18.1 ± 1.8%), followed by "outside the area" (22.6 ± 1.1%) and penalty area (24.5 ± 1%). The save rate is reduced by shots with deflections and changes of direction, followed by headers, with no distinction between right-foot and left- foot shots (other part, 15.2 ± 5.9%; head, 20.9 ± 1.3%; left foot, 23.8 ± 1.1%; and right foot, 23.8 ± 1.1%). It has been demonstrated that save rates are elevated for shots executed with feet oriented in a direction that is opposite to the direction of the field of play. This phenomenon has been observed to occur at a rate of approximately 24%, which is notably higher than the 19.6% recorded for shots executed with "natural" feet. A total of 278 distinct kick profiles were identified through combined scenario analysis. The kick profiles were categorized into the following play types: corner kicks (70%), outside the area (70%), center corridor (70%), and closed angle (<20°) (65% of angle profiles) as those profiles with lower goalkeeper effectiveness rates, despite having the highest "expected save" probability scores (1 – xG, Expected goal). These findings offer pertinent insights for the development of more contextualized training regimens for goalkeepers.