Política monetária e regime de metas de inflação: canais de transmissão e efeitos sobre a economia brasileira

Abstract

This study analyzes the transmission channels of monetary policy in Brazil under the Inflation Targeting Regime (ITR), adopted in June 1999. Through a systematic literature review and bibliometric analysis using the VOSviewer software, the study examines how the decisions of the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) — operationalized through the Selic rate — spread throughout the economy, affecting inflation, output, credit, exchange rates, asset prices, and expectations. The central hypothesis argues that the transmission channels operate unevenly due to the structural specificities of the Brazilian economy: high banking concentration, strong participation of public securities indexed to the basic interest rate, external vulnerability, and the persistence of high real interest rates. The results indicate greater relevance of the exchange rate and expectations channels, while the credit channel faces significant structural limitations. The interest rate channel remains central, although it is associated with relevant fiscal, distributive, and productive costs. The results prove ambivalent: nominal stability was achieved at the cost of structurally high interest rates, discouragement of productive investment, and persistent distributive tensions. It is concluded that Brazilian monetary policy presents conditioned and asymmetric effectiveness — conditioned by the nature of the shock and by the financial structure, and asymmetric in being more powerful to contain than to stimulate demand — pointing to the need for coordination among monetary, fiscal, exchange rate, and industrial policies.