Eventos climáticos extremos e sustentabilidade financeira: uma análise para o Brasil

Abstract

This thesis investigates the impact of extreme climatic events on the supply of bank credit in Brazil, analyzing how the banking system responds to droughts and dry spells, as well as to floods, flash floods, and inundations, over the period 2013 to 2023. Using a differences-in-differences empirical strategy in an event study framework, the study employs quarterly data on credit and deposit balances from the accounting statements of Brazilian bank branches, aggregated at the bank level, along with municipal-level data on extreme climatic events. The results reveal that, following drought and dry spell events, there is an increase in the balances of all credit categories, indicating an expansion in the supply of short-, medium-, and long-term credit. In contrast, for hydrological events, which tend to be more destructive, the results show a significant rise only in financing balances, that is, in long-term credit. These findings demonstrate that the Brazilian banking system exhibits resilience and countercyclical behavior, acting as a mechanism of stabilization and economic reconstruction in the face of climate crises, through the reallocation of resources and the use of public funding.