Impactos econômicos e descarbonização das práticas de eficiência energética do setor ferroviário de carga no Brasil

Abstract

The transformations driven by the energy transition and decarbonization imperatives have repositioned the transport sector within the debate on sustainable economic development. In Brazil, although railways play a strategic role in the flow of commodities and along major logistics corridors, their operation remains strongly dependent on fossil fuels. Over recent decades, the sector has undergone a process of modernization, marked by productivity gains, the expansion of logistics corridors, and the increasing adoption of performance metrics. In this context, railway energy efficiency emerges as a relevant instrument to mitigate emissions associated with diesel consumption, reduce operating costs, and enhance the competitiveness of freight transport. Accordingly, this dissertation evaluates the economic, energy, and environmental impacts of alternative trajectories of energy efficiency in Brazilian freight rail transport through 2040. To this end, a computable general equilibrium model, in a recursive dynamic version, is employed, which explicitly represents the demand patterns, cost structures, and productive organization of freight railway concessionaires. This disaggregation in the model’s database is derived from multiple sources of secondary statistical information, particularly physical and financial data from the main railway concessionaires. These features enable the simulation of two energy-efficiency intensification scenarios, representing gradual and more ambitious trajectories of efficiency gains over the analysis horizon. The scenarios are specified as gradual intrasectional energy-efficiency shocks associated with the progressive reduction in specific diesel consumption by railway concessionaires, allowing the assessment of their cumulative effects on macroeconomic indicators, productive structure, sectoral organization, and CO₂ emissions. The results indicate that gradual energy-efficiency gains generate substantial reductions in fuel consumption and emissions, combined with positive— albeit moderate—impacts on output, investment, and welfare, while also promoting intrasectional and intersectoral reorganization in favor of logistics-intensive production chains. The approach integrates operational, energy, and climate dimensions, contributing to the ongoing debate on policies and corporate strategies related to the transition toward a low-carbon matrix in the freight railway sector.