Efeitos ambientais e climáticos sobre agravos à saúde no Brasil: uma análise por biomas (2008-2021)

Abstract

Brazil, a country of continental dimensions, encompasses vast areas of native vegetation, of which approximately 16% have been converted to anthropogenic land use over the past four decades. Deforestation, associated with the expansion of economic activities and urbanization, may also affect population health, generating economic costs. In this context, this dissertation aims to assess the effect of deforestation on the incidence of selected vector-borne and respiratory diseases, as well as accidents involving venomous animals, across Brazilian municipalities, considering heterogeneity among biomes. To this end, a panel dataset was constructed comprising information from 5,565 Brazilian municipalities over the period from 2008 to 2021, including data on deforestation, climatic variables, land use, socioeconomic characteristics, urban infrastructure, and health indicators. The empirical strategy is based on panel data models with fixed effects, which allow control for unobserved heterogeneity across municipalities. The results indicate that the effects of deforestation on health vary across biomes and types of health outcomes, with both positive and negative associations depending on the ecological context, land use and land cover patterns, and socioeconomic conditions. A positive association was observed between deforestation and accidents involving venomous animals in the Caatinga, as well as between deforestation and hospitalizations for respiratory diseases in the Cerrado. Conversely, in certain contexts, particularly in areas with higher levels of agricultural mechanization and lower interaction with forest environments, negative associations were found for some outcomes, suggesting the influence of land use changes on disease dynamics. Climatic variables also proved relevant: precipitation is positively associated with dengue incidence in the Cerrado, Chagas disease in the Amazon biome, and accidents involving venomous animals in both the Atlantic Forest and the Cerrado, while temperature would show a positive association with accidents involving venomous animals in the Pampa. Overall, the findings indicate that environmental and climatic effects on health are not homogeneous across the Brazilian territory, as they are conditioned by ecological, socioeconomic, and institutional characteristics, as well as by ecosystem reorganization and the patterns of interaction between human populations and modified environments. These results underscore the importance of integrated policies that combine deforestation control, fire prevention, the expansion of sanitation services, improvements in housing conditions, and the strengthening of epidemiological surveillance, particularly in rural, peripheral areas and in new economic expansion frontiers.