Eleições em rede: impacto dos gastos digitais no desempenho de candidatos a deputado federal e a deputado estadual em 2022

Abstract

This study analyzes the relationship between digital communication expenditures and the electoral performance of candidates in Brazil’s 2022 elections. Situated within the context of the increasing digitalization of electoral campaigns, the research investigates how different categories of investment in digital media influence the probability of election. The analysis uses public data from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), consolidated at the individual level, combining information on vote totals, candidate profiles, and detailed records of campaign expenditures. Digital spending is classified into content boosting, production of radio, television, or video programs, website creation, and advertising in newspapers and magazines. Methodologically, the study employs discrete choice models of the Probit type, with Logit specifications used as robustness checks, in both aggregated and disaggregated approaches, with interpretation based on marginal effects. The results indicate a strong regional and partisan concentration of digital expenditures and show that the impact of investment varies according to the level of the electoral race. For state deputy candidates, individual spending has a positive and statistically significant effect on the probability of election. For federal deputy candidates, investments in the production of radio, television, or video programs stand out, while some spending categories exhibit negative effects. The findings are robust across specifications, demonstrating that digital campaign financing influences electoral performance, albeit heterogeneously across offices and types of expenditure.