Impacto econômico e descarbonização dos ganhos de eficiência energética dos transportes no Brasil

Abstract

This monograph analyzes the impacts of increased energy efficiency in transportation on the Brazilian economy and greenhouse gas emissions. To this end, a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model, with fiscal and emissions modules, was applied to four distinct simulations corresponding to the rail, road, waterway, and air transport modes, considering an annual 1% shock in fuel combustion efficiency over ten years. The results show that improvements in energy efficiency tend to foster economic growth while simultaneously reducing carbon dioxide emissions, thus breaking the trade-off between economic growth and environmental sustainability. Growth occurs mainly through higher household consumption, real wages, and investments, with more pronounced effects in the services sector. However, the international competitiveness of Brazilian products declines due to rising relative prices, leading to a decrease in exports and an increase in imports. The petroleum refining and fossil fuel sectors contract, while sustainable alternatives, particularly biofuels, benefit. Environmentally, all simulations indicate reductions in CO₂ emissions, especially in road transport, demonstrating that the gains from energy efficiency outweigh potential rebound effects. The study underscores the importance of energy efficiency policies as a tool to align economic growth with environmental sustainability, while noting limitations such as the absence of regional analysis and suggesting future research that considers the heterogeneity of Brazil’s transport matrix