Mudança de blend e eficiência energética no uso de diesel b: avaliando os impactos econômicos e de descarbonização no Brasil

Abstract

This dissertation examines the effects of increasing the biodiesel blending policy in diesel B sold at gas stations, based on the metrics established by the National Biodiesel Production Program (PNPB) from 2015 to 2024 and the Future Fuel Program (PCF) from 2025 to 2030. The analysis focuses on the impact of increased biodiesel blending, the impact of higher fuel consumption due to energy loss from greater biodiesel contente and the effects of a 5% improvement in diesel B efficiency by 2040, without any increase in blending. A key objective is to assess the environmental and sectoral outcomes of the policy. To achieve this, the study applies a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, specifically the BIM-RD (Brazilian Intersectoral Model with Recursive Dynamic), which incorporates recursive dynamics and a fiscal module to examine the national economy. The findings show that the blending policy contributes to 75% of avoided emissions, while 25% results from improved energy efficiency— the only scenario where diesel B consumption declines. All policy scenarios indicate GDP growth. The results also suggest that efficiency gains lead to income redistribution, whereas the blending policy primarily benefits higher-income households. Both economically and environmentally, blending policies play a role in expanding national economic activity while contributing to emissions reduction over time.