Avaliação do impacto de secas e estiagens no mercado de trabalho formal brasileiro: evidências para os jovens no período de 2013–2023

Abstract

This study investigates the causal effect of droughts on the wage trajectories of young workers in Brazil’s formal labor market. To do so, it combines data from the Annual Social Information Report (RAIS) and the Brazilian Atlas of Natural Disasters, constructing a longitudinal panel of workers followed from 2013 to 2023. The empirical strategy employs a Two-Way Fixed Effects (TWFE) model to compare workers located in municipalities affected exclusively by droughts with those residing in municipalities that experienced no disasters during the study period. The results show no contemporaneous wage penalty among workers who remain formally employed, a pattern that may reflect the selective exit from formal employment of the workers most affected by the shock. In contrast, wages decline persistently by between 1.5% and 2.2% two years after the occurrence of a drought, depending on the inclusion of municipality fixed effects. The effects are more pronounced among women, workers in the primary sector, and residents of Brazil’s Northeast region. The study contributes to the literature by tracking individual workers over time using administrative records and showing that droughts can generate persistent wage losses among structurally vulnerable groups.