Digitalização e dinâmica produtiva: as contribuições estruturais promovidas pelo uso de TICs na economia brasileira (2010-2021)

Abstract

The digital transition is reshaping cost structures and capital accumulation in contemporary economies. Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) have established themselves as strategic assets, indispensable for the modernization of the productive matrix. To measure the magnitude of this phenomenon in Brazil, this study quantifies the structural contributions of ICT usage to the growth of the national gross value of production (GVP) from 2010 to 2021. The research applies the structural decomposition analysis technique to a time series of inputoutput matrices and investment absorption matrices. The model isolates the effects of technological shifts and changes in final demand, partitioning the intensity and composition of ICT usage in private consumption and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF). The results confirm that ICT usage accounted for 21.5% of Brazilian GVP growth in the analyzed interval. Technological changes associated with ICT inputs promoted an isolated expansion of 4.8% in production, with the Public Administration sector standing out. From the perspective of accumulation, the increased intensity of fixed capital in ICTs boosted GVP by 10.1%. The productive system displayed asymmetry: the electronic manufacturing core revealed high endogeneity and high dependence on household consumption, whereas the expansion of ICT services was supported by intermediate demand and investment from base and manufacturing industries. Furthermore, a structural movement of dematerialization is observed, characterized by the substitution of physical equipment acquisition for intangible services in the composition of capital. Finally, the decomposition of imports evidenced that domestic technological intensification contained the leakage of demand abroad. From this perspective, the calibration of support and credit instruments shows potential for inducing investment in information services and for strengthening domestic links in activities with high systemic dispersion power. Such orientation enables the maximization of the identified effects and the enhancement of the competitiveness of the national ICT industry.