Assistência efetiva e setor automotivo brasileiro: efeitos econômicos das mudanças tarifárias de automóveis importados

Abstract

The Brazilian automotive industry, labor-intensive and strategic for the national economy, accounts for 3.7% of manufacturing output, 0.5% of GDP in 2021, and employs approximately 1.3 million workers. Despite being historically supported by industrial policies aimed at R&D and decarbonization — such as Inovar-Auto, Rota 2030, and more recently the Green Mobility and Innovation Program (Mover) (2024) — studies that comprehensively assess its economic effects remain limited. To address this gap, this dissertation develops a theoretical module and applies the Effective Assistance Measure (MAE) within a dynamic-recursive Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, whose data structure recognizes payment and income flows among economic institutions based on the Brazilian Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). The MAE has been widely discussed in debates on import tariff barriers over the past two decades, and by incorporating it into the theoretical framework, the model gains analytical capacity to evaluate industrial, fiscal, and trade policies over time. The central objective is to analyze the impacts of tariff policy directed at the Brazilian automotive sector through the assessment of vehicle import tariffs under the MAE, in the short, medium, and long term. Two prospective scenarios are considered between 2025 and 2040: (i) gradual tariff reduction to 0% (C1) and (ii) immediate tariff increase to 35% (C2) in the automotive sector. The main results regarding the MAE indicate that C1 would reduce costs, expand access to technologies, and strengthen competitiveness, despite contraction in the automotive segment. Compensatory intersectoral effects would increase production and employment in industry, with gains in services and agriculture. There is also evidence of GDP growth and improvement in household welfare, accompanied by lower fiscal revenue and greater exposure to external competition. Conversely, C2 would protect domestic industry production in the short term (2030), but would generate price increases, restrict investment in R&D, and reduce international competitiveness. After 2030, sharp declines are observed in industry (production and employment), services, and agriculture, as well as drops in fiscal revenue, investment, and welfare. It is concluded that policies such as C2, although offering immediate relief, would compromise the economy and welfare in the long run. In contrast, C1 would foster modernization, technological integration, and gains in high-tech sectors, reinforcing the need to calibrate industrial and trade incentives to promote competitiveness and economic sustainability in Brazil.