Modelagem de nicho climático e atualização da distribuição geográfica do gastrópode invasor Rumina decollata (Linnaeus, 1758), no Brasil.

Abstract

Rumina decollata (Linnaeus, 1758) is a terrestrial gastropod native to the Mediterranean region, with recorded occurrences on several continents. There is no clear evidence of how it was introduced to Brazil, and its impacts are poorly known. The integration of occurrence records from scientific collections and citizen science platforms can support Species Distribution Modeling studies to infer potential patterns of current and future dispersal. Therefore, this study assessed the current distribution pattern of the species in Brazil and analyzed habitat suitability under different future climate change scenarios. For this purpose, 179 georeferenced occurrence records of R. decollata in Brazil were compiled from the literature, scientific collections, and online biodiversity databases. Climatic niche analyses used bioclimatic variables projected for the current and future climate scenarios (2050 and 2090). The results indicated a concentration of suitable areas in the Southeast and South under current conditions, an expansion of suitable areas in the South by 2050, and a reduction by 2090, approaching the present pattern. Although R. decollata may show a moderate expansion of highly suitable areas, its potential distribution tends to stabilize or decrease under warmer scenarios, remaining restricted to regions with specific climatic conditions. This study highlights the importance of integrating data from biological collections and citizen science platforms to understand the current and potential distribution of R. decollata in Brazil. The identified suitability patterns provide support for the delimitation of priority areas for monitoring, helping to reduce potential ecological, economic, and sanitary impacts associated with the species presence.